Habitat use as indicator of adaptive capacity to climate change

Aim Populations of cold-adapted species at the trailing edges geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to negative effects climate change from combination exposure warm temperatures and high sensitivity heat. Many these predicted decline under future scenarios, but they could persist if can adapt warming climates either physiologically or behaviourally. We aim understand local variation in contemporary habitat use this information identify signs adaptive capacity. focus on moose (Alces alces), a charismatic conservation public interest. Location The northeastern United States, along edge range North America. Methods compiled data occurrences remote cameras GPS collars across States. build suitability models regional spatial scales then predict change. also fine-scale model relationships between temperature daily temporal scale use. Results find that for will scenarios. However, region differ their climatic space, indicating exhibit evidence behavioural responses weather, where increase forested wetland habitats warmer places and/or times. Main conclusions Our results suggest there be significant shifts distribution due is thermal tolerance, trailing-edge populations highlight prioritizing certain (i.e., refuges) crucial adaptation.